PARADOXICAL

Volatile, Violent Times

The times they are a-confusin', to paraphrase an old song, especially if you're on social media. While we are whiling away the time creating 3D simulacrum of ourselves with one click using Google Gemini, imbibing collagen drink, and dancing to the tune of the latest bubblegum K-pop, "Soda Pop," so many earth-shaking things are going on. The assassination of someone named Charlie Kirk is among them, on top of the wars in various parts of the world. I can't blame people who prefer to tune out or totally unplug from it all.

That's mostly because overnight regime change is once again en vogue around the world, it seems. Nepal, Indonesia, Japan, France... who's next? I have a few countries on my wish list, those with truly unimaginably brutal leaders and unspeakably barbaric regimes -- and yes, your guess is as good as mine which those are.

The incendiary images coming out of Nepal are especially chilling, which are said to have been provoked by a government ban on social media use. A finance minister was ganged up on, then hit with a thick club or something, then pushed down into a riverbank like some slaughtered pig that didn't pass the standards. It's an image that is sure to make all people in high positions quake in their boots. (It brings to mind the swift, no-fuss execution of Romania's despots, the Ceaușescu couple at the height of the post-communist revolt in that former 'satellite state' under the former and unlamented USSR.)

On another day, I woke up to a picture of the Nepalese parliament building in flames, then a Hilton Hotel too, then another. It makes you wonder whether the protesters made the right decision of burning down government property, which is technically their own property built using their taxes. I understand all that anger, but as a government employee, I couldn't help but see it as an act of vandalism and, worse, as some kind of burning one's own house, self-immolation, and self-sabotage.

Next came the image of a bloodied prime minister, I think, being escorted by soldiers away from vindictive hands, mostly young protesters. He was luckier, for he was afforded the luxury of official protection, though I heard that he and other officials were eventually airlifted to somewhere, like the Marcoses before, there to await certain prosecution or, worse, execution.

I winced at the sight of it all -- certainly not enjoyable to look at, not at all relishing on repeat mode.

Apparently, the Indonesians also have reached the tipping point, with a critical mass doing the job of protesting, rioting, ransacking (of the plush residences of the rich and influential), torching and incinerating, turning the place, it seems, into a powder keg. This time, the murder of a lowly delivery rider was the catalyst.

Whatever happened to law and order? to due process? Again, I can't help but ask. Apparently, these basic considerations are no longer tenable under conditions that a mass of people consider to be non-negotiable, like large-scale embezzling of public funds while the rest barely get by from day to day. In Tagalog, puno na ang salop.

To those who have a rebellious streak or revolutionary bent back home, these developments must be a moment of inspiration, I imagine. In the light of the current legislative inquiries revolving around one contractor named Sarah Discaya, exposés on anomalous flood control projects, and the sudden outcry against 'nepo babies,' formerly adored and admired as social media influencers and now despised like common criminals, this must be the time they have been waiting for, and in fact a final reckoning that has been quite a long time coming.

...While to the current dispensation, it is understandably a tight, worrisome situation.

At the rate things are going, it's anybody's guess what will happen next. From the looks of it, based on observations of those on the ground, the protesters in Metro Manila at least are of four kinds: 'woke' youth, leftists, 'DDS' (loyal Duterte supporters), and church types (both Catholic and evangelical/Protestant).

This caustic mix makes the situation quite unpredictable. What are the possible scenarios given these strange bedfellows rallying together? Let me count the ways.

1. Leftist victory: It's no secret what the extreme left wants. To this day, despite world developments, I suppose they still harbor this dream of having a communist state where private property is abolished, among other basic human rights, to once and for all erase the divide between rich and poor and bring about their version of utopia. This would easily translate to summary executions, massive spilling of blood on the streets, mass incarceration on mere suspicion, rampant confiscation of property, the apparatchik seizing all manner of private acquisitions and tools of economic activity, and the like. The question is whether they still have the numbers, or still have enough clout or sympathizers.

2. Socialist victory: Socialists would probably want a tamer, maybe less violent takeover to enforce their version of social equality, using the current government structure, but with major adjustments.

3. Christian social democrat victory: Soc-dems would most likely proffer a far more palatable but still revolutionary formula.

4. Woke-ist victory: The 'woke' youth, i.e., people who regard themselves as "aware of issues concerning social and racial justice" but, I'm afraid, with limited knowledge of the past and zero first-hand experience of what went before, would surely demand something significant or drastic, even violent, such as changes to the Constitution and form of government and mode of governance -- for sure to accommodate their own understanding of equality, equity, and social justice. A widespread repudiation of traditional mores will likely ensue, in the manner of the preachings of liberal American universities.

5. The rise of the political opposition. A great chunk of the 'woke' are mostly 'Leni-nists' too, the ones often derided as 'Kakampinks' or 'Pinklawans.' This sector most likely will push for reforms that will probably be more conventional, as members take their cue from opposition figurehead, former Vice-President Leni Robredo, and company.

6. A Duterte comeback. The DDS mind is a lot easier to read and predict, of course: They obviously wish to unseat the current president, install the Veep as President, and bring her father, the former president, back home, and restore a strongman style of rule.

7. The incumbent weathering the storm despite everything, especially the bizarre ironies. I am not sure where the Marcos loyalists belong, but of course, keeping PBBM as president until his term expires would be foremost on their agenda. An extreme scenario is that PBBM, if properly provoked, might repeat history by declaring martial law.

8. Church and civil society gaining the upper hand. Predictably, as well, church people would rather preach temperance, sobriety, nonviolence, and the primacy of the rule of law, not to mention call for prayers, repentance, and reflection, but at the same time assert and press for accountability and justice, reparation and restitution.

9. Military adventurism. A dangerous but very possible scenario is the military taking things in its own hands out of fear of a communist takeover or that of anyone they don't favor. We've seen too many coup d'etats before, and they weren't reassuring times.

One thing is sure, though: All of these factions want change, fast. Except for those with hidden agenda or selfish ulterior motive, the message is loud and clear: No more business as usual, which is to say foul play or monkey business with our hard-earned funds, the people's money. Away with the status quo (of guiltless wholesale theft just because that's how the cookie is supposed to crumble, with the perpetrators becoming unjustifiably rich and admired for it). In short: "Clean up the mess, or else..."

As the Latin phrase-lovers would put it, Quo vadis, Philippines? Which way to go?

As we reach the bottom of the barrel, where else to go, if not up? But that's only if there is clarity, and if only the best of scenarios prevails in the end.

Speaking of clarity, what really is the roadmap that we want to follow? I, for one, wish for urgent remedial measures so the situation wouldn't degenerate into civil war, the infiltration of undesirable factions and forces, and unnecessary loss of lives and destruction of precious few properties. I hope for our democratic processes to be upheld and for law and order to be observed. Let us pray that these indeed would be the ones that will come to pass in the next few days.

Personally, how I wish I could just dwell on more trivial pursuits like listing down and defending the top 100 dance tracks of all time or tracing the history of poetry or music in general or other more significant matters such as publishing a cache of booklets on Pangasinan language and culture. But these things are a luxury at the moment, as I like everyone else have to constantly keep tabs of what's happening.

Meanwhile, like suitors would say, may the best idea win.

posted by Resty Odon  # 10:54 PM