PARADOXICAL

Volatile Times

The times they are a-confusin', to paraphrase an old song, especially if you're on social media. I can't blame people who prefer to tune out or totally unplug from it all.

Overnight regime change is once again en vogue around the world, it seems. Nepal, Indonesia, Japan, France... who's next? I have a few countries on my wish list, those with truly unimaginably brutal leaders and unspeakably barbaric regimes -- and yes, your guess is as good as mine.

The incendiary images coming out of Nepal are especially chilling, which are said to have been provoked by a government ban on social media use. A finance minister was ganged up on, then hit with a thick club or something, then pushed down into a riverbank like some slaughtered pig that didn't pass the standards. It's an image that is sure to make all people in high positions quake in their boots. (Personally, it brings to mind the swift, no-fuss execution of Romania's despots, the Ceaușescu couple, but that's during the height of the post-communist revolt in that former 'satellite state' under the unlamented USSR.)

On another day, I woke up to a picture of the Nepalese parliament building in flames, then a Hilton Hotel too, then another. It makes you wonder whether the protesters made the right decision of burning down government property, which is technically their own property built using their taxes. I understand all that anger, but I couldn't help but see the burning as some kind of self-immolation or self-sabotage.

Next came the image of a bloodied prime minister, I think, being escorted by soldiers away from vindictive hands, mostly young protesters. He was luckier, for he was afforded the luxury of official protection, though I heard that he and other officials were airlifted to somewhere like the Marcoses before, there to await certain prosecution or execution.

I winced at the sight of it all -- certainly not enjoyable to look at.

Apparently, the Indonesians also have reached the tipping point, with a critical mass doing the job of protesting, rioting, ransacking (of the plush residences of the rich and influential), torching and incinerating, turning the place, it seems, into a powder keg. This time, the murder of a lowly rider was the catalyst.

Whatever happened to law and order? to due process? I can't help but ask. Apparently, these basic considerations are no longer tenable under conditions that a mass of people consider to be non-negotiable, like large-scale embezzling of public funds while the rest barely get by from day to day.

To those who have a rebellious streak or revolutionary bent back home, these developments must be a moment of inspiration. In the light of the current legislative inquiries revolving around one contractor named Sarah Discaya, exposes on anomalous flood control projects, and the sudden outcry against 'nepo babies,' formerly adored and admired as social media influencers, and now despised like common criminals, this must be the time they have been waiting for, and in fact a final reckoning that has been quite a long time coming.

...While to the current dispensation, it is understandably a tight, worrisome situation.

At the rate things are going, it's anybody's guess what will happen next. From the looks of it, based on observations of those on the ground, the protesters in Metro Manila are of four kinds: 'woke' youth, leftists, 'DDS' (loyal Duterte supporters), and church types (both Catholic and evangelical/Protestant).

This caustic mix makes things totally unpredictable. What are the top possible scenarios? Let me count them.

1. Leftist victory: It's no secret what the left wants. To this day, despite world developments, I suppose they still harbor this dream of having a communist state where private property is abolished, among other basic human rights, to erase the divide between rich and poor and bring about their version of utopia. This would translate to summary executions, massive spilling of blood on the streets, mass incarceration on mere suspicion, confiscation of property, the apparatchik seizing all manner of private acquisitions and tools of economic activity, and the like.

2. Socialist victory: Socialists would probably want a tamer, maybe less violent takeover to enforce their version of social equality, using the current government structure, but with major adjustments.

3. Christian social democrat victory: Soc-dems would most likely proffer a far more palatable but still revolutionary formula.

4. Woke-ist victory: The 'woke' youth, i.e., people with limited knowledge of the past and zero first-hand experience of what went before, would surely demand something significant or drastic, even violent, such as changes to the Constitution and form of government and mode of governance -- for sure to accommodate their own understanding of equality, equity, and social justice. A widespread repudiation of traditional mores will likely ensue, in the manner of the preachings of liberal American universities.

5. A great chunk of the 'woke' are mostly 'Leni-nists' too, the ones often derided as 'Pinklawans.' This sector most likely will push for reforms that will probably be more conventional.

6. The DDS mind is a lot easier to read and predict, of course: They wish to unseat the current president, install the Veep as President, and bring her father, the former president, back home, and restore a strongman style of rule.

7. I am not sure where the Marcos loyalists belong, but of course, keeping PBBM as president until his term expires would be foremost on their agenda.

8. Predictably, as well, church people would rather preach temperance, sobriety, nonviolence, and the primacy of the rule of law, not to mention call for prayers, repentance, and reflection, but at the same time assert and press for accountability and justice.

9. A dangerous but very possible scenario is the military taking things in their own hands out of fear of a communist takeover.

One thing is sure, though: All of these factions want change, fast. The message is clear: No more business as usual, which is to say foul play or monkey business with our hard-earned funds, the people's funds. Away with the status quo (of guiltless wholesale theft just because that's how the cookie crumbles, with the perpetrators becoming unjustifiably rich and admired for it).

As the Latin phrase-lovers would put it, Quo vadis, Philippines? Which way to go?

As we reach the bottom of the barrel, where else to go, if not up? But that's only if there is clarity, and if only the best of scenarios prevails in the end. We pray that they indeed be so.

posted by Resty Odon  # 10:54 PM